Farm Progress America, January 16, 2026

Mike Pearson takes a look at the farm economy. It shows mixed signals as farm policy uncertainty weighs on farmers confidence.

The latest Purdue University CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reveals a cautious outlook among American farmers as they navigate ongoing trade policy uncertainty and volatile commodity markets.

Released last week, the December barometer dropped 3 points to a reading of 136, putting overall sentiment roughly in line with last year but significantly below the May 2025 peak. While farmers feel reasonably steady about current conditions, growing caution about the future is evident in the index of future expectations, which fell 4 points to 140 – more than 20 points below last spring's high.

Key Findings from the December Report:

• Financial Performance : The Farm Financial Performance Index rose 2 points to 94, showing modest improvement in producers' views of their own finances

• Investment Hesitancy : Despite a slight uptick in the Farm Capital Investment Index to 58, six out of ten farmers still consider it a bad time for large investments

• Export Concerns : Only 5% expect US agricultural exports to decline over the next five years, but soybean-specific sentiment is more cautious

• Brazil Competition : 84% of corn and soybean farmers worry about US soybean export competitiveness compared to Brazil, with nearly half expressing serious concern

Related: You vs. You: Fear or greed

• Tariff Uncertainty : Just 54% believe tariffs will strengthen the US ag economy long-term, a declining share, while uncertainty about tariff impacts continues growing

Trade policy remains farmers' biggest concern, with Purdue economists noting that anxiety over market share highlights the importance of evolving trade relationships. The survey reflects justified concerns about growing global competition, particularly from Brazil in the soybean market.

As farmers prepare for 2026, the data suggests they're maintaining a wait-and-see approach, balancing cautious optimism about their financial performance with uncertainty about broader policy directions that could significantly impact their operations.