Drought threatens again in Southwest

Increasing drought

The Drought Severity Coverage Index (DSCI) is currently at 173 out of a possible value of 400. Drought is increasing across the state but is mostly moderate or less in severity at this time. This contrasts with early June when nearly 73 percent of the state was entirely free of dry or drought conditions.

The DSCI in June reached a low of 43. The current conditions seem to be bearing out earlier forecasts of redeveloping La Niña conditions, which increases the probabilities of warmer, drier weather in the southern half of the country.

Because of the dry conditions, very little wheat has been planted at this time or it has been “dusted in” to await hoped-for rain. Prospects for winter wheat grazing are decreasing with each passing week. Wheat planted after mid-September will have less time to grow sufficient forage for winter grazing – assuming moisture is forthcoming. The start of winter grazing will be pushed back, and stocking rates will likely be reduced due to less available forage through the winter.

Oklahoma range and pasture conditions have deteriorated rapidly in the last month, with the percent of pastures rated poor to very poor increasing from 19 to 34 percent in the last four weeks. Going into the winter in drought is ominous and raises concerns about 2025 forage prospects. Fortunately, hay supplies are much improved this year, which will help with winter feed needs. The combination of this year’s hay production and very large carryover stocks (May 1) from last year, leaves Oklahoma with record large total hay supplies this year - over 20 percent larger than the ten-year average.

Cattle auction pressure

The lack of wheat stocker demand and the beginning of the fall run of calves is putting pressure on cattle auction prices. Many unweaned calves are beginning to show up at auctions. Unweaned calves take a bigger discount, especially in the fall as variable weather increases animal health challenges and risks.

There is time to add value to calves to be marketed this fall. Weaning (minimum 45 days), vaccinations, castration and dehorning will add value to calves marketed 45-90 days from now. Even better is documenting these practices in a certified preconditioning program that provides additional assurance to buyers.

Many years of data confirms that preconditioned calves will bring premiums over unweaned calves. The 45-day cut-off for most fall Oklahoma Quality Beef Network (OQBN) sales is rapidly approaching in late September. Producers can find the sale schedule, program and sign-up information at Oklahoma Quality Beef Network | Oklahoma State University (okstate.edu) .