An open letter regarding beef

Inflation-adjusted retail beef prices (the measure that really matters) are up only ~8.5% versus 2015.

In comparison, real retail prices jumped 32% between 2010 and 2015.

Perhaps most importantly, beef spending as a percentage of disposable income remains essentially unchanged over time.

As a reference, domestic beef production bottomed out in 2015 at ~23.8B lb.

Beef production set a new record just several years ago (’22), and this year’s throughput will likely eclipse the 2015 low by more than 11%.

Many pundits are blaming higher retail prices on declining beef cow inventory. But that doesn’t translate to beef production because it doesn’t account for the industry’s perpetual gains in productivity. The beef industry continues to produce more beef with fewer cows over time.

Per capita supply (i.e., “consumption”) in 2025 will likely finish the year at 60+ lb — the highest level dating back to 2009 — and 11% bigger versus the 2015 low.

At the margin, the expanded Argentinian TRQ will likely displace some products imported from other countries. But even if it were all absorbed into the U.S., it would increase total beef supply by less than 0.5% (or ~5 oz/person — call it one hamburger). That’s not going to move the needle.

Meat shoppers are chasing quality and increasingly turning to beef. Monthly retail sales data consistently reveal beef to be the outperformer in 2025, garnering ~75% of every dollar of new spending.

That’s occurring in the face of growing supply from competitors (especially chicken). That is, if consumers were hesitant about price, they have many opportunities to make substitutionary purchases.

Kansas State University’s Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (MDM) continues to reveal that among 12 key purchasing attributes, taste is the single most important factor for consumers when making buying decisions. That dynamic inherently favors beef and explains the dynamic detailed above.

Some factions in the industry continue to promote the idea of country-of-origin labeling as a demand differentiator among consumers — and a potential driver to lower retail prices. That’s flawed thinking. Origin consistently ranks last, or next-to-last, among MDM’s 12 attributes. Moreover, it’s expensive. Tightening supplies helped drive the inflationary surge mentioned above (2010–2015); however, COOL was in the background, throwing gas on the fire.