Cattle markets plunge on false New World screwworm rumors

USDA APHIS cleared up these rumors with a post on X late Friday afternoon, stating, “There is no New World screwworm (NWS) in the United States. USDA is working day and night to carry out the Secretary’s five-prong plan to keep the screwworm out of the United States. As part of that effort, USDA maintains a large network of validated traps along the border, and we will find it if it comes north, so that we will quickly eradicate it. Every day we are finding flies – with over 37,000 in TX alone since June 2025 – and none of them have been New World screwworm.”

Cash fed cattle traded at $233 per hundredweight in the South last week, steady with the week prior. In the North, trade occurred from $232 to $234 per hundredweight, steady to $1 higher. Dressed trade was steady at $365 per hundredweight.

USDA estimated weekly slaughter to be 562,000 head, up 9,000 from a week ago and down 39,000 from a year ago.

Official slaughter data for the week ending January 3 reported dressed steer weights at 989 pounds. Dressed heifer weights were reported at 900 pounds. Warmer weather so far this winter is allowing for weights to peak later than normal.

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The choice boxed beef cutout average was $359.35 per hundredweight, $5.02 higher on the previous week. The choice-select spread continues to tighten, even becoming inverted at one point early last week. Seasonally, a tightening spread is normal this time of year, typically bottoming out in February. This is due to a shift in consumer preference to roasting cuts (chuck, round) during the cold weather months, of which quality grades are closer substitutes than what they are for middle meats (rib, loin). Pushing the spread outside its normal seasonal bounds is a function of the relatively larger supplies of prime and choice beef being produced compared to select.

The all-fresh beef retail value released last week for the month of December was reported at $9.55 per pound, up $0.15 from November and $1.47 higher (+18.2%) than a year ago. In comparison, the retail value for pork is down 0.55% and broilers are 0.90% lower than a year ago.

Live cattle futures made new weekly highs earlier in the week before sustaining heavy selling pressure on Friday. For the week, February finished $1.575 per hundredweight lower, April $0.70 lower and June $0.15 lower. Further out, 2026 contracts finished slightly higher. Feeder cattle futures have finished with weekly gains for eight consecutive weeks now. March through August contracts were $1.325 to $1.950 higher on the week.

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The CFTC Commitment of Traders report released Friday, reflecting positions as of Tuesday, January 13, showed managed money adding to their net long position in live cattle by 6,611 contracts, with net long positions reaching 100,338 contracts. In feeder cattle, managed money dropped 343 contracts from their net long position, now net long 17,048 contracts.

The risk of loss trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Investors should carefully consider the inherent risks in light of their financial condition. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources to be reliable, however, no independent verification has been made. The information contained herein is strictly the opinion of its author and not necessarily of Ever.Ag and is intended to be a solicitation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.