No room for intervention

"An increase in imports from Argentina would have a negligible impact on the total supply of beef in the U.S. market." —Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University

Late last Thursday, October 17, President Trump announced that his administration had a plan to lower retail beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon, too. We did something," Trump said.

Though no details were initially released, the statement triggered "risk off" futures market trading on Friday, particularly among algorithmic formulas sensitive to headlines. Live cattle futures were down $3.70 to $7.22 following Trump's comments.

The bottom line is that while futures markets slumped on Friday, there's little evidence yet that Trump's comments caused a crash in live feeder cattle markets. And although live cattle markets had trended up all week, even in the face of seasonal selling, the cattle industry was left walking on eggshells over the weekend.

All About Argentina

The early speculation of the president's intentions was clarified Sunday afternoon when he specifically pointed to beef imports from Argentina. Trump has already demonstrated a high-profile relationship with Argentina's president, Javier Milei, and a desire to help Milei get reelected to another term.

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But Trump's mention of expanding beef imports from Argentina met with overwhelming opposition from cattlemen's associations across the U.S.

"This plan only creates chaos at a critical time of the year for American cattle producers, while doing nothing to lower grocery store prices," said National Cattlemen's Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall. He called on Trump and members of Congress to let the market work, rather than intervening.

"We urge the president to address the fundamental problems in the beef market, not just its symptoms," said Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA. "The symptom is that the U.S. has shrunk its beef cow herd to such a low level that it can no longer produce enough beef to satisfy domestic demand."

Currently, the U.S. imposes a tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 20,000 metric tons (MT) on Argentine beef at a duty of $44/MT. Argentina has a recent history of exceeding the TRQ, resulting in a 26.4% tariff on over-quota beef. The U.S. recently increased Argentina's beef import tariffs by 10%.

Separately, the Argentine government imposes its own beef export taxes. As of August 2024, Argentina's export tax on beef was reduced to 6.75% from the previous 9%.

Exports to the U.S. are primarily boneless lean beef in frozen blocks, which is primarily blended with higher fat U.S. beef trimmings to meet the domestic hamburger market. Argentina also exports frozen and/or chilled knuckles, top sides, flank steaks, and inside and outside skirts.

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A Negligible Impact

Argentina is the ninth largest source of beef imports in the U.S., accounting for about 2.1% of total U.S. beef imports thus far in 2025, according to Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist. U.S. imports of Argentine beef have been growing in recent years and were up 41.7% year over year through July.

However, it's unclear how much capacity currently exists in Argentina to increase beef exports. Peel said domestic consumption accounts for 70-75% of the country's total beef production.

"If, for example, the U.S. doubled imports over 2024 levels, it would most likely be at the expense of domestic consumption in Argentina or other export markets for Argentine beef," Peel explained. "Such an increase in imports from Argentina would have a negligible impact on the total supply of beef in the U.S. market."

In fact, Peel said, in the unlikely event the U.S. took all of Argentina's projected 2025 beef exports, the amount would represent less than 2.5% of the total U.S. beef supply. He also pointed out that U.S. beef imports from Argentina are less than 10% of the imports from Brazil.

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"Increasing imports from Argentina would have a very slight impact in offsetting the reduction in imports from Brazil expected because of the sharp increase in tariffs on Brazil," Peel concluded.

A Chilling Reminder

Ironically, headlines surrounding Trump's declaration that "beef is higher than we want it" bring chilling memories of 2006 in Argentina. In an effort to lower the rising price of domestic beef, Argentina's president, Néstor Kirchner, banned beef exports for 180 days and subsequently imposed a series of price controls on the more popular cuts of beef.

Kirchner's beef pricing plan, while directed at the supply side as opposed to the demand side, backfired and the results were immediate and catastrophic. The government assumed ranchers would continue to raise cattle, but processors refused to lose money by selling beef at government-mandated prices.

Argentina's beef price intervention plan caused the national cow herd to drop from 55 million head to 50 million head in just three years. The resulting reduction in the cattle supply led to higher retail beef prices, defeating the original purpose of the intervention, and caused 20 years of beef industry instability.

Today, the overwhelming message throughout the U.S. cattle industry is that there's no room for government intervention in beef markets, anywhere.

"When policymakers hint at intervention or suggest quick fixes, they can shake the market's foundation and directly impact the livelihoods of ranchers who depend on stable, transparent pricing," said Justin Tupper, president of the U.S. Cattlemen's Association. "Sudden price moves make it harder for independent producers to plan, invest, and keep their operations running."